What the 2021 Census data tells us about the property market…
The most recent Census data has recently been published and contains some interesting insights given the median Sydney house price rose from $730,000 at the previous census in 2016 to $928,000 in 2021.
On average, across the Eastern Suburbs, Inner Sydney and the Inner West, only 25% of properties are occupied by people with a mortgage on that property. The remaining properties are either owned outright or rented, meaning that the media speculation that increasing interest rates are going to drastically effect property prices is not supported by the data.
The median monthly mortgage payments will increase for about 60% of borrowers over 2022, as ~40% of existing mortgage holders in 2021 fixed their rate (or part thereof) when rates were sub 2%.
The flow of fixed rates expiring through 2023 and 2024 means that we are unlikely to see a large number of distressed sellers all hit the market at the same time. There will be some through 2022 and each year thereafter, however, prices in these areas are unlikely to fall off a cliff.
Sydney is a wealthy city, evidenced by the census data that 28% of residents in the Eastern Suburbs and Inner West own there property outright, and historically when we see price correction activity, the market stabilises again within six months.
